Is the War in Afghanistan Winnable?

 "The war began in response to the 9/11 attacks on the United States in 2001, and nine years later, is now America's longest war"

Though the origins of the war involve the ongoing Afghan Civil War and the Soviet Invasion and Occupation of the 1970s and 1980s, the current war began in October, 2001 in response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States.

Here is some past history about Afghanistan and the fighting within the country.

Following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 and the fall of the Afghan Communist government in 1992, a protracted civil war raged on between the various factions of anti-Communist Afghan fighters, who called themselves the Mujahadeen (people doing jihad). In this realm of chaos, some former Mujahadeen found a leader in Mullah Mohammed Omar. A Mullah is an Islamic religious leader. A former Mujahadeen fighter who returned to his home after fall of the Communist regime, this member of the Pashtun ethnic group led a new armed group called the Taliban (student), and many of the original recruits to Omar's movement were Islamic religious students. Other former Mujahadeen leaders of Pashtun background joined with the Taliban as this new group sought to impose law and order on the country. The particular law they sought to impose was an extreme version of Islamic law.  Under Taliban-imposed law, women are not allowed to work outside the home or attend school. Men are expected to grow beards and attend religious services regularly. Also, in 2001, the Taliban ordered the destruction of all non-Islamic idols and statues in areas under their control. They also attracted the support of Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda organization.

In 1994, the Taliban attacked and defeated local warlords and began to gather a reputation for order and military success. Pakistan soon began supporting them, partially as a means of establishing a stable, friendly government in Kabul. The continual fighting between the former Mujahadeen armies caused waves of refugees to flood Pakistan's border regions and interfered with Pakistani trade in the region. The Taliban took control of Kandahar, acquiring a large supply of modern weapons, including fighter aircraft, tanks and helicopters. In January of 1995, the Taliban approached Kabul and was seized in September of 1996.

 Taliban fought against several militias and warlords, eventually defeating them all. Several anti-Taliban leaders and their forces fled to the northern part of the country to continue fighting against the Taliban. One of these leaders, or warlords, was Ahmed Shah Massoud. By 1997, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. 

 In 1998, following the terrorist bombings of American embassies in Africa, the United States launched a cruise missile attack on training camps belonging to bin Laden's Al-Qaeda organization in Afghanistan. Autumn of 2001, the Taliban continued to pressure the Northern Alliance, often with the aid of Osama bin Laden and his Arab forces. On September 9, 2001, the Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud was mortally wounded in an assassination attempt carried out by two Arab men posing as journalists. This attack was the work of bin Laden's organization as a possible prelude to the airline hijackings and terrorism in the United States on September 11. The Northern Alliance responded to Massoud's killing with an aerial attack on Kabul the night of September 11. The killing of Massoud was coordinated with the terror attacks on the United States which took place on September 11. As the United States assigned blame for the attacks on bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, plans began to take the fight to Al-Qaeda and its Taliban sponsors as the first phase of what became known as the Global War on Terror.

The War in Afghanistan began on October 7, 2001, armed forces of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Afghan United Front launched Operation Enduring Freedom.  The primary driver of the invasion was the September 11 attacks on the United States. Main goal was to dismantle the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and ending its use of Afghanistan as a base. The aim of the invasion was to find Osama bin Laden and other high-ranking Al-Qaeda members to be put on trial, to destroy the organization of Al-Qaeda, and to remove the Taliban regime.

As more Allied troops entered the war and the Northern Alliance forces fought their way southwards, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda retreated toward the mountainous border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. From 2002 onward, the Taliban focused on survival and on rebuilding its forces. From 2005 to the present, the Taliban has increased its attacks and is using suicide bombers and other tactics from Iraq War.

  

2007, while on a diplomatic trip to Afghanistan, an apparent assassination attempt was made by Taliban insurgents, who claimed that Cheney was a target in the attack. A suicide bomber blew up a checkpoint at Bagram Air Base outside of Kabul, killing 20, including an American soldier.

 The Afghan nation was able to build democratic structures and to create some progress in key areas such as health, economy, education, transport, agriculture and construction. NATO is rebuilding and training the military and police force.

 Unfortunately, in the years that followed, the U.S. did not devote enough resources to the war in Afghanistan, and the Taliban were able to regain strength. It is only now, with President Obama's decision last year to send 30,000 additional troops, that we have enough soldiers in place to implement an effective counterinsurgency strategy. To succeed in Afghanistan, we must convince the Afghan population that we, not the Taliban, are their best hope for the future. And we need to make them feel secure enough that they'll cooperate with us to defeat the insurgents. 

 Despite the recent increase in U.S. casualties as our forces have pushed into areas previously ceded to the Taliban, there are early signs of success: For example, after stepped-up training, recent reports indicate that the Afghan National Army may be now ready to take over security.  But counterinsurgency takes time to succeed. Consider the example of Iraq: Just a few years ago, the situation there looked miserable. Then a troop surge and a shift in strategy began to turn things around, and now violence in Iraq has substantially subsided and the U.S. has withdrawn its combat forces. Terrorists across the border in Pakistan continue to plot attacks. The U.S. presence in Afghanistan is essential to ensuring that these terrorists cannot again use it as a safe haven from which to attack us, as they did during the 1990s and on 9/11. 

"Less than 50% of U.S. troops believe Afghanistan War is winnable".

There are two principal reasons the war in Afghanistan cannot be won with the level of resources that the American people are willing to devote to it. 

First, the Afghan government is barely functioning in many places and is highly corrupt despite more than eight years of aid from the United States and the international community. Winning the war in Afghanistan is impossible as long as the government is corrupt and ineffective. Poor leadership creates opportunities for Taliban militants, enabling them to recruit soldiers and get help from Afghans who are angry with the government. Yet the government shows no sign of becoming any more effective or less corrupt. 

U.S. troops are losing confidence in the military's long-term chances of success in Afghanistan, a new poll has revealed.
The Military Times survey found less than half of serving soldiers believe the U.S. is 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to succeed in Afghanistan.
The number is down from 2007, when more than 75 percent of those polled said the U.S. was 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to succeed.

 The second reason is that Afghanistan's neighbor Pakistan continues to support the Taliban. Pakistan helped create the Taliban in the early 1990s as a way to gain influence inside Afghanistan. Despite promises to the U.S. to help fight the insurgents, it has continued to provide aid to the Taliban since the war began in 2001. Pakistan's border with Afghanistan is a reserve for the Taliban, as are certain cities inside Pakistan. Despite Pakistan's domestic problems with its own militants, it shows no sign of cutting off support to the Taliban. These safe havens and government support make it all but impossible to completely destroy the Taliban as an organization. 

 If the U.S. were willing to commit hundreds of thousands of troops for another decade or more, it might succeed in defeating the Taliban and building a stable Afghanistan. But the American people—and the politicians they elect—will not support a commitment on this scale. And that makes victory in Afghanistan virtually impossible.

U.S. troops are losing confidence in the military's long-term chances of success in Afghanistan, a new poll has revealed.
The Military Times survey found less than half of serving soldiers believe the U.S. is 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to succeed in Afghanistan.
The number is down from 2007, when more than 75 percent of those polled said the U.S. was 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to succeed.

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Link to 

Defense Sec. Robert Gates and Gen. David Petraeus on the 10-year-long war.

http://abcn.ws/iywJPG

Facts 

"Less than 50% of U.S. troops believe Afghanistan War is winnable"

U.S. troops are losing confidence in the military's long-term chances of success in Afghanistan, a new poll has revealed.

The Military Times survey found less than half of serving soldiers believe the U.S. is 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to succeed in Afghanistan.

The number is down from 2007, when more than 75 percent of those polled said the U.S. was 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to succeed.

http://lpmndc.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=231%3Aless-than-50-of-us-troops-believe-afghanistan-war-is-winnable&catid=40%3Awar&Itemid=1

2007, while on a diplomatic trip to Afghanistan, an apparent assassination attempt was made by Taliban insurgents, who claimed that Cheney was a target in the attack. A suicide bomber blew up a checkpoint at Bagram Air Base outside of Kabul, killing 20, including an American soldier.
http://www.historyguy.com/war_in_afghanistan.html